If there is something that we realized today, it is the fact that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are both highly volatile and speculative. Investing in Bitcoin and other cryptos may bring your investment to zero in a matter of days. In 2017, Bitcoin was able to skyrocket to almost $20,000. However, things weren’t looking good in 2018 as regulatory changes were applied in the market.
Just last week, Bitcoin was down below $6,000. Many were quick to criticize Bitcoin for losing as much as 70% of its value from its all-time high in December. However, now that Bitcoin is slowly scaling up and is getting near $7,000, there are some who are saying that Bitcoin could probably in it for another bull-run.
Tom Lee and His Bitcoin Predictions
Tom Lee of Fundstrat initially had a projection that Bitcoin is about to reach $25,000 before the year ends. However, he clarified recently his position regarding this prediction. He said that he “may have misspoke a little bit”. Instead of having a $25K prediction, he said that “what I was trying to illustrate was that given where mining costs will be and applying the historical average of 2.5 times mining costs, that would imply fair value over $20,000, roughly $22,000”.
He mentioned though that “we still think Bitcoin can reach $25,000 by the end of the year or something like that”. He stressed however that regardless of his prediction, it is going to surpass the former all-time high near $20,000.
Lee thinks that Bitcoin is looking good mainly because of the cost of mining. He said that “the reason bitcoin looks really good here is the cost of mining around $7,000 fully loaded. And the difficulty is rising. So by the end of the year, it’s going to be $9,000”.
Lee believes that currently, Bitcoin and the entire blockchain industry is still in its early stages. He called it a “multidecade story”.
He said that “I did wireless (research) in the 1990s. I saw 20 years of mobile and internet convergence. To me, this is not that different”.
Lee is also the one who said that the lack of regulatory clarity is part of the reason why Bitcoin is bearish. It still prevents institutional investors from getting involved in the market knowing that there is still uncertainty in the market.
Recently, there are developments that may possibly bring regulatory clarity within the niche. For instance, you have Japan implementing rules that make it difficult for crypto exchanges to operate. The purpose is to protect the investors and to minimize threats of hacking incidences. Next, you also have the US Security and Exchange Commission considering Bitcoin and Ethereum as commodities. This ultimately means that rules on stocks and other investment vehicles aren’t exactly applied to both Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Is Tom Lee correct in his prediction? Come to think of it, 2018 is already halfway done. There are still a number of things that could happen. And in reality, there is a chance that he is actually correct in his prediction considering Bitcoin’s price swings.