Bitcoin’s 2017 performance has attracted a good number of people who believe in blockchain technology, and those who simply want to earn large profits quick. Because of the cryptocurrency’s volatility, no one exactly knows where Bitcoin is headed. And for this reason, you have the likes of Tom Lee who remained optimistic even pointing out indicators why Bitcoin price is down this year.
But Bitcoin is quite far from its all-time high last year of near $20,000. This year, Bitcoin slipped below $6,000 on more than one occasion. If you will ask Anthony Pompliano, founder and partner at Morgan Creek Digital Assets, he believes that Bitcoin could go further down to as low as $3,000. This is quite shocking for many considering that it was the complete opposite of what his bullish prediction earlier this year. In January, Pompliano stated that Bitcoin could actually end up at $50,000 before the year ends.
Change of Tune?
Morgan Capital Management founder Mark Yusco, in July, mentioned that Bitcoin is expected to reach $25,000 by the end of the year. He even mentioned that the price could exceed $500,000 by 2024. However, Pompliano mentioned that examining the data, he was able to review this bullish prediction.
He stated that: “Parabolic increases in price continue to take longer — each parabolic run is measured from the last all-time high to the new all-time high. The first rapid price appreciation took just over 300 days (2010-2011) and the second took over 900 days (2011-2013). The last parabolic price increase peaked at ~$20,000 (2013-2017) and took almost 1,500 days to complete”.
He extrapolated from this trend that an all-time high will be seen by 2023 after more than 2,000 days from the previous all-time high of near $20,000 in mid-December of 2017. He also came up with a conclusion that the current bear market is going to last for around 650 days.
This means that the bearish market on Bitcoin is going to continue even up to the 3rd quarter of 2019. And he mentioned that this can mean a high level of “pain and discomfort” for those who hodl. He mentioned that “It is never fun to admit that you were wrong about something you said publicly. However, it is important to constantly test your assumptions and beliefs. As I’ve tested myself over the last few weeks, it becomes obvious that I need to gather better data and rebuild the prediction model”.
$50K by 2022 Still Possible
Though he believes that Bitcoin is about to hit as low as $3,000, in the short term, there is a possibility that Bitcoin is going to reach somewhere around $10,000.
For Pompliano, he still believes that Bitcoin can still reach $50,000 by 2022 or 2023. However, he thinks that investors should be prepared for the worst.
Many believe that institutional investors hold the answer towards bringing the price of Bitcoin up once again. And because of this, many are quite optimistic that there will be a Bitcoin ETF soon enough. The good news is that the SEC is about to review the recent batch of Bitcoin applications that were rejected.