Bitcoin took off last year going from around $1,000 to near $20,000. It has skyrocketed by more than 8,000 percent that it was able to catch the attention of investors and regulators alike. Regulators reacted this year by implementing the necessary regulatory changes to prevent criminals from using the crypto market in fraud, money laundering, and other illicit activities. Unfortunately, 2018’s regulatory clarity has also pulled the price of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as many investors became hesitant regarding the reaction of regulators.
Until now, regulatory clarity is still quite far from reality. You have China that has a strong anti-crypto stance while you also have the likes of the US that have become somewhat transparent when it comes to dealing with the industry. The US Securities and Exchange Commission even considered Bitcoin and Ethereum a commodity.
Bears Are Not Yet Winded?
Mike Novogratz was among those experts who think that Bitcoin has bottomed already. Bitcoin today is trading around $6,200 to $6,500 and even has a lower volatility than Netflix and Amazon stocks. If you are going to ask Willy Woo regarding the future of Bitcoin, he thinks that there is a chance that it is still going to find its bottom by the second quarter of 2019. This means that in the next seven months, Bitcoin price isn’t going to improve.
This is quite a different outlook compared to other crypto experts. There are those experts that are looking at the possibility of high-profile institutional investors getting involved in the market in order to justify their optimistic outlook on the near future of Bitcoin. However, for Woo, he provided a number of technical indicators to back up his pessimistic view of Bitcoin.
For instance, Woo mentioned that NVTS—which is Bitcoin network valuation divided by transaction value—has dipped below the support level. And for him, this is a classic sell signal. Also, he mentioned that the Bitcoin Network Momentum (BNM) is yet to spike which is something that will indicate a bull cycle.
However, despite the pessimistic view of Bitcoin price in the next months, this doesn’t mean that there won’t be a short-term bull run. Woo said that “If price (in the short term) bounces upwards here, which is certainly possible, I think the 200-day moving average is the upper band of the move. This is $7K right now”. He also added that “Remember if price goes above the 200DMA, in the history of BTCUSD’s 8 year trade history, it’s been a reliable indicator of bear to bull transitions. It’s too early to transition out of the bear”.
Bull or Bear?
There are certainly different views as to what the future lies ahead for Bitcoin. Will a Bitcoin ETF approval in the coming months bring the bulls back along with fresh capital from institutional investors? Is Bakkt’s launch this December going to get the job done? Or perhaps, both of these won’t really provide a sustainable bull run for the crypto market? Of course, we can only wait in order to see whether or not this is a good or a bad prediction.