When does optimism become wishful thinking? Bitcoin made a good run in 2017 and was able to reach near $20K value, however, it was the complete opposite in 2018’s bear market. Regulatory changes have changed the direction of the crypto market over regulators fearing the use of cryptocurrencies in money laundering and other illicit activities. However, the market was waiting for the entry of institutional investors. Until today, many are still waiting for the possibility of having a Bitcoin ETF that could attract institutional investors to enter the market.
Though the crypto market isn’t looking good in the last year, the ex-Goldman Sachs partner Mike Novogratz took it to Twitter to address the bad state of the crypto market. He said that “Realizing having tweeted about crypto in a while. It’s a grind. Don’t think we head north for at least a few more months. Always take longer for institutions to move. Very confident they will. Tons of activity under the hood. Stay the course”.
Novogratz has been known for his optimism. He mentioned that big-name financial institutions will enter but it might take some time. Aside from the possible Bitcoin ETF, Bakkt is yet another development that hasn’t happened yet. Also, a good number of institutional products, as well as platforms, were set to be released last year were actually delayed. The reason behind such is the regulatory issues.
According to SEC chairman Jay Clayton, the reason behind the hesitation of the agency to approve a Bitcoin ETF is due to the fact that cryptocurrency exchanges don’t use monitoring tools that can track the possibility of price manipulation.
In addition to this, the SEC started hunting ICOs along with celebrities that endorsed these tokens. Floyd Mayweather and DJ Khaled were penalized by the agency for their involvement in promoting unregistered securities.
Did Novogratz Retract His Bold Prediction for 2019?
Despite regulatory challenges, in November 2018, Novogratz believes that the price of Bitcoin is at $10,000 by the end of the first quarter of 2019. He also believes that Bitcoin is set to go over $20,000 this year. But now that Bitcoin and the rest of the crypto market aren’t looking good, does it mean that he is changing his outlook?
But of course, we are still early in 2019 and there are around 11 more months left for the year. For Dan Morehead who is the CEO of Pantera, he believes that those with short-term mindsets should relax. He believes that Bitcoin and the crypto industry has experienced this in the past.
He said that “In the previous one, I had more of a worry in the pit of my stomach about whether blockchain was actually going to work. With this one, the underlying fundamentals are much, much stronger than they were in the 2014-2015 Crypto Winter”.
Is this optimism or is it already wishful thinking on the part of Novogratz, Dan Morehead, and even the Winklevoss twins? Could it be because they’ve invested a good amount of money in the industry which is why they are staying optimistic? Will there be institutional investors by the end of the year?