If you will look at Bitcoin today, many are wondering if it is ever going to go back to its all-time high last year. From around $1000 finishing 2017 to almost $20,000, 2018 is quite the opposite. There was a month when Bitcoin was actually trading just below $6,000. Now, there are those that are still optimistic regarding the next coming months.
If you will ask Brian Kelly who works for BKCM, he is quite positive that the fourth quarter of the year is going to be a good thing for Bitcoin especially with the implementation of new regulated exchanges.
When Kelly was asked whether a regulated exchange and crypto custody system can be considered “a long way off”, he said that “I think they are probably Q4 2018 so I think that’s coming in the next four to six months or so”.
He also added that “We are in an environment where there’s a lot of regulation and this is the best opportunity to get something new through. The iron is hot, it’s time to strike”.
Since Bitcoin was trading above $8,000 in the past few days, Bitcoin slipped by 3.71%. The rest of the other cryptocurrencies followed as Ethereum lost 5.57% while Ripple dropped by 3.50%. However, Kelly mentioned that “You have to remember, Bitcoin can move five percent on any given day so. While it may seem crazy to the legacy market, in the Bitcoin world this is just a normal correction”.
Incoming Bearish Trend
If you will be asking IG Markets senior strategist Ilya Spivak, he actually thinks that there is an incoming bearish trend for Bitcoin. He said that “The latest numbers show that close to 78% of IG retail traders are net-long bitcoin, with the ratio of traders long to short at about 3.5 to 1”.
He also added that “We typically take a contrarian view of crowd sentiment, and the fact that traders are net-long suggests Bitcoin may be heading lower”. Could he actually be right in this analysis?
According to Spivak: “What briefly looked like it may be an upside breakout fizzled as BTC/USD fell back into a Triangle consolidation pattern carved out since February”. He added that “Critical support remains in the $5,790 to $6,450 area, with a break below that opening the door for a test below the $5,000 figure”.
Regulatory changes are shaping the current crypto landscape. In fact, from the US to different parts of the world, regulators are doing what they can in order to adapt to the popularity of cryptocurrencies. And the good news is that many regulators are not banning crypto activities, but simply opted to regulate the market.
In fact, it was reported that Nasdaq also had its closed-door meeting with different cryptocurrency exchanges. The goal of the meeting is to legitimize the industry. Then, you also have the different crypto-ETF applications submitted to the SEC.
Is it possible that Bitcoin is actually going to be bullish in the coming months considering these regulatory changes? Will the institutional investors enter the picture and go all out?